Estimation of the epidemiological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sucre, Colombia

Abstract

Introduction: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a considerable impact within the different affected countries. In the case of Colombia, currently among the top 10 countries in number of cases, the impact on regions and departments is variable.

Methods: In this epidemiological analysis estimates are made of the epidemiological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the department of Sucre, Colombia until the month of August 2020.

Results: The estimates are based on the SIR model and its variants that relate three variables: susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R) taking into account the infection rate and the average infectious period. Taking the recommendations of the Ministry of Health and Social Protection according to the model of the Imperial College, in Sucre, 50% of the population (474,626 people) are susceptible to infection, 12% (56,955) not developing symptoms and manifesting them in different degrees of severity 88% (417,671), but the dynamics of the pandemic and the containment and mitigation actions implemented from all levels of the State, the curve has flattened in its initial projection and eventually the entire susceptible population is at risk of contracting the disease. infection.

Conclusions: Sucre has had a considerable impact, despite the late introduction of the disease, compared to other departments in Colombia.