Modelo para un sistema multi estado reparable con tasas de reparación y fallas variables en el tiempo utilizando modelos de dinámica de sistemas equivalente

Palabras clave: Reliability, Systems Dynamics, Failure analysis


This paper treats with the reliability assessment of a Repairable Multi-State System (RMSS) by means of a Nonhomogeneous Continuous-Time Markov Chain (NH-CTMC). A RMSS run on different operating conditions that may be considered acceptable or unacceptable according to a defined demand level. In these cases, the commonly used technique is Homogeneous Continuous-Time Markov Chain (H-CTMC), since its solution is mathematically tractable. However, the H-CMTC involve that the time between state transitions is exponentially distributed, and the failure and repair rates are constants. It's certainly not true if the system components age with the operation or if the repair activities depend on the instant of time when the failure occurred. In these cases, the failure and repair rates are time-varying and the NH-CTMC is needed to be considered. Nevertheless, for these models the analytical solution may not exist and the use of others techniques is required. This paper proposes the use of an Equivalent Systems Dynamics Model (ESDM) to model a NH-CTMC. A ESDM represent the Markov Model (MM) by means of the language and the tools of the Systems Dynamics (SD), and the results are obtained by simulation. As an example, an RMSS with three components, failure rates associated with the Weibull distribution and repair rates associated with the Log-logistic distribution is developed. This example serves to identify the advantages and disadvantages of a ESDM to make model a RMSS and evaluate some reliability measures.


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Biografía del autor/a

Marcela Narváez Velasco, Iteria SAS

nacida el 23 de diciembre en Cali, Colombia. Ingeniera Industrial egresada de la Universidad del Valle, Santiago de Cali, Colombia, en 2012. Magister en Finanzas de la Universidad Icesi, Santiago de Cali Colombia, en 2018.

Entre los años 2012-2016, desempeñó cargos de coordinación en procesos de compras y abastecimiento de las empresas Compañía Internacional de Alimentos S.A.S y Fleischmann Foods SA. Actualmente es consultora funcional de finanzas en proyectos de implementación y soporte de aplicaciones Oracle en Iteria SAS.

Juan Carlos Osorio Gómez, Universidad del valle

nacido el 20 de septiembre de 1975 en Buga, Valle del Cauca, Colombia. Ingeniero Industrial, Especialista en Logística, Magister en Ingeniería Industrial, Doctor en Ingeniería Industrial de la Universidad del Valle, Santiago de Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia. Actualmente Profesor titular de la Escuela de Ingeniería Industrial de la Universidad del Valle.


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Cómo citar
Narváez VelascoM., & Osorio GómezJ. (2020). Modelo para un sistema multi estado reparable con tasas de reparación y fallas variables en el tiempo utilizando modelos de dinámica de sistemas equivalente. Scientia Et Technica, 25(3), 386-393.