Modelo multicriterio para el diseño de cadenas de suministro considerando opciones reales para el tratamiento de la incertidumbre

Multi-Criteria Model for the Design of Supply Chains Considering Real Options for the Treatment of Uncertainty

Abstract

The problems related to the configuration of supply chains include quantitative and qualitative variables. Among the quantitative attributes, the most common is the money, and many attributes such as machine utilization, labor power and quality can be translated into monetary terms. Some examples of qualitative variables are people's mood, customer satisfaction, reputation in the community, appearance, aesthetics, etc. Multiple-attribute decision models integrate quantitative and qualitative attributes to produce an aggregate performance measure. This paper proposes a multi-criteria decision model using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the configuration of supply chains by integrating elements of financial flexibility through the analysis of real options. The model developed considers elements of financial risk based on the consideration of variables such as demand, exchange rates and interest rates, and allows assessing the operational flexibility of the project in the face of changes in said risk elements.