Metodología multicriterio basada en ciencia de datos para la selección del modelo óptimo de pronóstico del consumo de energía eléctrica residencial

Abstract

There is a wide variety of techniques and models for forecasting electrical energy consumption, depending on both the type of user, the forecast horizon, and the resolution of the available data. Likewise, there are different metrics to evaluate the performance of these models. So, in this research an integrated multi-criteria methodology is proposed to select the best forecast model for residential electricity consumption, using the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) to establish the weights of relative importance of the decision criteria, and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to make the selection of the optimal model. The methodology is in turn framed within a data science process, through which the data is extracted, processed, and analyzed, prior to the application of the machine learning algorithms to obtain the forecast models, which will correspond to decision alternatives. The performance metrics in the evaluation phase of the models, and the performance metrics obtained from the forecast phase, are considered as the decision criteria. From the pairwise comparisons technique, it was obtained that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the prognosis phase was the criterion with the greatest weight of importance, followed by the coefficient of determination R² and the MAPE of the evaluation phase. From the TOPSIS method, the Multiple Linear Regression model was selected as the optimal forecast model.